(1) Video Library > 7. Reasoning About Chance and Uncertainty: Philosophy, Rules and Fallacies
Buy now
Learn more
Introduction
Introduction
Part 1: What is Probability?: A Gentle Introduction to the Philosophy of Probability
Introduction
What is Probability?
Probability: Why Learn This Stuff?
What is Inductive Logic?
Probability as a Mathematical Object vs What That Object Represents
Interpretations of Probability
Classical Probability
Logical Probability
Frequency Interpretations
Subjective (Bayesian) Probability
Propensity Interpretations
Part 2: The Logic of Probability: Introduction to the Basic Rules
Introduction
Preliminary Concepts
What Has a Probability? Propositions versus Events
Probabilities Range Between 0 and 1
Mutually Exclusive Events
Independent Events
The Basic Rules
The Negation Rule: P(not-A)
Disjunction Rules: P(A or B)
Restricted Disjunction Rule: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
General Disjunction Rule: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
Conjunction Rules: P(A and B)
Restricted Conjunction Rule: P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B)
General Conjunction Rule: P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B|A)
Conditional Rules: P(A given B)
Conditional Probability Rule
Total Probability Rule
Bayes’ Rule
Part 3: Probability Fallacies: Understanding the Errors We Make When Reasoning About Chance and Uncertainty
Introduction
Coincidences: When the Impossible Becomes Inevitable
Introduction
The Basic Fallacy
Borel's Law: Understanding Impossible Events
How to Create the Illusion of Miraculous Predictive Power
The Birthday Problem, Lottery Coincidences and the Power of Very Large Numbers
The Gambler's Fallacy: Bias, Randomness and the Illusion of Control
Introduction
The Basic Fallacy
Fairness, Bias and Independence
How Can You Tell Whether a Chance Setup is Unfair?
The Physics of Coin Tosses
Casino Games: Why the House Always Wins
Cognitive Factors and the Psychology of Gambling
Small Sample Fallacies: Looking for Causes of Extreme Cases
The Small Sample Fallacy: Looking for Causes of Statistical Artifacts
Products
Course
Section
Lesson
How to Create the Illusion of Miraculous Predictive Power
How to Create the Illusion of Miraculous Predictive Power
(1) Video Library > 7. Reasoning About Chance and Uncertainty: Philosophy, Rules and Fallacies
Buy now
Learn more
Introduction
Introduction
Part 1: What is Probability?: A Gentle Introduction to the Philosophy of Probability
Introduction
What is Probability?
Probability: Why Learn This Stuff?
What is Inductive Logic?
Probability as a Mathematical Object vs What That Object Represents
Interpretations of Probability
Classical Probability
Logical Probability
Frequency Interpretations
Subjective (Bayesian) Probability
Propensity Interpretations
Part 2: The Logic of Probability: Introduction to the Basic Rules
Introduction
Preliminary Concepts
What Has a Probability? Propositions versus Events
Probabilities Range Between 0 and 1
Mutually Exclusive Events
Independent Events
The Basic Rules
The Negation Rule: P(not-A)
Disjunction Rules: P(A or B)
Restricted Disjunction Rule: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
General Disjunction Rule: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
Conjunction Rules: P(A and B)
Restricted Conjunction Rule: P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B)
General Conjunction Rule: P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B|A)
Conditional Rules: P(A given B)
Conditional Probability Rule
Total Probability Rule
Bayes’ Rule
Part 3: Probability Fallacies: Understanding the Errors We Make When Reasoning About Chance and Uncertainty
Introduction
Coincidences: When the Impossible Becomes Inevitable
Introduction
The Basic Fallacy
Borel's Law: Understanding Impossible Events
How to Create the Illusion of Miraculous Predictive Power
The Birthday Problem, Lottery Coincidences and the Power of Very Large Numbers
The Gambler's Fallacy: Bias, Randomness and the Illusion of Control
Introduction
The Basic Fallacy
Fairness, Bias and Independence
How Can You Tell Whether a Chance Setup is Unfair?
The Physics of Coin Tosses
Casino Games: Why the House Always Wins
Cognitive Factors and the Psychology of Gambling
Small Sample Fallacies: Looking for Causes of Extreme Cases
The Small Sample Fallacy: Looking for Causes of Statistical Artifacts
Lesson unavailable
Please
login to your account
or
buy the course
.