Introduction
Introduction
(1) Video Library > 7. Reasoning About Chance and Uncertainty: Philosophy, Rules and Fallacies
Introduction
Introduction
Part 1: What is Probability?: A Gentle Introduction to the Philosophy of Probability
Part 1: What is Probability?: A Gentle Introduction to the Philosophy of Probability
Interpretations of Probability
Interpretations of Probability
Part 2: The Logic of Probability: Introduction to the Basic Rules
Part 2: The Logic of Probability: Introduction to the Basic Rules
The Basic Rules
The Basic Rules
Disjunction Rules: P(A or B)
Disjunction Rules: P(A or B)
Conjunction Rules: P(A and B)
Conjunction Rules: P(A and B)
Part 3: Probability Fallacies: Understanding the Errors We Make When Reasoning About Chance and Uncertainty
Part 3: Probability Fallacies: Understanding the Errors We Make When Reasoning About Chance and Uncertainty
Coincidences: When the Impossible Becomes Inevitable
Coincidences: When the Impossible Becomes Inevitable
The Gambler's Fallacy: Bias, Randomness and the Illusion of Control
The Gambler's Fallacy: Bias, Randomness and the Illusion of Control
Small Sample Fallacies: Looking for Causes of Extreme Cases
Small Sample Fallacies: Looking for Causes of Extreme Cases
This first set of lectures offers some additional reasons for learning about probability, and then walks through a handful of different philosophical interpretations of the concept of probability.
This material is often not taught in formal courses on probability theory, but it is relevant to critical thinking about arguments that appeal to intuitions about chance and uncertainty.
Just to give one example, the so-called “fine-tuning” argument for the existence of God is based on the premise that we live in a "probabilistically unlikely" universe if it wasn’t the product of some kind of intelligent design (i.e. it would be unlikely to have arisen by chance), and therefore the best explanation for our existence in this universe is that it was, in fact, a product of intelligent design.
But the debate over whether this is a good argument turns (in part) on what it means for something to be “probabilistically unlikely”, and whether it’s even meaningful to talk about the universe in this way.
I won’t say any more about that here, but this is just one example of an interesting philosophical debate where probability concepts play an important role.